Las Vegas Lights 1 - Rio Grande Valley 0 - Three Things (With Some Thoughts on Results v. Process)

Las Vegas Lights FC beat Rio Grande Valley this weekend 1-0 with a late header from Joel Huiqui off of a corner providing the winning goal.

I haven't actually posted anything about the team in a few weeks now (my fandom gets sidetracked sometimes by little distractions like a job and a family), so I am also going to include some observations from the past few weeks in general, as I write about the most recent game specifically.

1. Won the Must-Win Game

This game, at home against a team that was three points behind us going into the match, was an absolutely "must-win" event if Las Vegas wants to hold out any hope of making a playoff push. So, fair play to the team, they had to win it, and they did.

Unfortunately, such has been the state of our season so far, that winning this "must-win" game doesn't grant us a lot of reprieve. We're still seven points back from the last playoff spot (with a far inferior goal difference), with only about 1/3 of the season to play. In other words, this is not going to be our last "must-win" game this season. Let's just hope that the team can find a way to win those games like they did for this one.

2. Squad Overhaul

By my count, the Lights have picked up ten new players since the end of May (Avila, Mendiola, Mathers, Perez, Inigo, Manley, Samayoa, Murphy, Salgado, and Guzman). Most of those new faces are loanees from MLS or other USL clubs. And I wouldn't be surprised if I have missed a couple players from that list.

That is a huge amount of turnover for one transfer window - it's enough to make an entirely new outfield.

While everybody loves a good transfer/new signing, this amount of dealing raises some serious questions for me about the club's recruitment. Surely it can't have always been the plan to put a squad together before the season started, and then sign ten entirely new players (and let a few leave after just a few months with the team) within a few months?

Most of these new faces have seen significant minutes for the first team in recent weeks, but as far as I can tell none are locked-in starters. But, to be honest with you, I couldn't tell you more than maybe three "locked-in" starters for this team for any given game, such is the level of chopping and changing by the manager. I mean, I write a blog exclusively about the club, and I couldn't tell you what the coach's preferred XI is, or even what his preferred formation would be. And I can't help but think that kind of uncertainty affects the team.

3. Results vs Process

On that note, let's talk a little bit more about the manner of the Lights' victory this weekend. Las Vegas won by one goal, from a header from a defender on a late corner kick.

However, soccer is a famously low-event sport. The stat-line that matters in this game is simple: 1-0. But there are other stat-lines from this game that reveal a little bit more detail - and that detail makes me a little bit concerned.

Rio Grande beat the Lights in possession 63% to 37% (and also in passing 435 to 238). They also beat us in passing accuracy 78% to 65%. And also in shots (barely, 14 to 13), but by a substantial margin in shots on target, 7 to 2. And also by a huge margin in touches inside the opposition box, 29 to 15 (mostly down the Lights' left hand side, which infers that Torres and Garduno had a bit of a rough night). We did manage to keep our traditional dominance in fouls though - 22 fouls to their 8.

And to be clear here - this is not a situation where the stats are skewed because the Lights went ahead early and Rio Grande had to press the game to get a result. No, this was a game that was 0-0 for the majority, where the Lights were at home, against a team that is below them in the standings, in a match that the Lights basically have to win in order to stay in the playoff hunt.

Look, I know this probably sounds a bit churlish, coming after a game in which the Lights scored a late winner and kept their playoff hopes alive. But at the end of the day, despite the good result, I still have some major concerns about the process, and whether repeating the process is going to produce similar winning results in the future.

Hopefully I am wrong (I have been wrong before) and the team has managed to come up with some secret formula that defies what I am seeing and the stats.

For the sake of the team's playoff future, let's hope so.

Till next time.

-VSB