Monday, April 30, 2018

Three Things: Las Vegas Lights 1 - 3 San Antonio + Real Monarchs Preview

Well that wasn't exactly what we were looking for.

In USL's featured "game of the week" on Friday, the Lights fell on their face to concede three goals at home in a 1-3 loss to San Antonio. Here are the three things I took from it:

1. The counter-attackers got counter-attacked.

The Lights are, in essence, a defend-and-counter team. We don't like to possess the ball and stroke it around - instead we look to move it forward quickly and with purpose.

So with that in mind, you'd think the team would be aware of the danger of counter attacks - but on Friday they just weren't. The first San Antonio goal, in the 17th minute, was a classic example of a poorly managed counter attack. The Lights had committed players forward, and had only left two defenders back to deal with any possible counter-attack.

That's fine, sometimes you have to commit numbers forward - but when you do that, you have to (a) make sure that the play ends either in a goal, goal kick, corner, or something, or (b) have players switched on enough to sprint back on defense in case you lose the ball. The Lights did neither - they lost possession, and noone got back quick enough. San Antonio moved the ball upfield into a 3 on 2, and it was a fairly simple tap-in in the end.

After that, the Lights had to press high in search of an equalizer, and that played right into San Antonio's hands. While the Lights managed to out-possess and out-shoot San Antonio, it just wasn't effective, because that just is not who the Lights are. While we managed to eventually get a goal back (through Carlos Alvarez, one of our stand-out players, and a former San Antonio man himself) San Antonio was able to just ride out the limited pressure and continue to play on the break, which eventually killed us.

2. Couldn't find our shooting boots

That isn't to say that the Lights didn't have chances. After the first goal and early in the second, Lights forward Ochoa had some decent looks that could have, on a better night, brought the Lights back into the game.

Overall, they had 23 shots, 15 of which were inside the box. Inside the box shots are usually much higher percentage shots that outside of the box, but out of all of those attempts, the Lights only managed to keep a paltry six on target (compare that to San Antonio, who only managed 13 shots all game, but 10 of those were inside the box, and 5 were on target).

As I've mentioned in some of my past posts, the Lights have been converting their shots at a probably-unsustainably-high rate. This game just might have been the first sign of a reversion to the mean, where the Lights' finishing just wasn't as clinical as it has been in the past.

3. Look ahead at Real Monarchs

So far the Lights have had a really friendly opening schedule, with a lot of breaks and a lot of home games. In the next few weeks, however, the Lights are going to be on the road a lot more often, and are going to have a much more packed schedule - so don't be too surprised if they struggle in a few matches as fatigue (both in terms of minutes and travel) start to take their toll.

It all starts for the Lights tonight as they play the Real Monarchs up in Salt Lake City. Actually, the Lights get the dubious honor of opening the Monarchs' brand new USL-specific stadium.

Let's not beat around the bush here, this is going to be a tough game. The Monarchs were the regular season champions last season, they have a lot of talent, and they are gong to be motivated to get their new stadium off to a winning start.

BUT, I still hold out a tiny bit of hope that the Lights can get a result up in Utah, and here's why. The Monarchs are not going to do what San Antonio did - give up possession to play on the break, and force the Lights to try to possess the ball. No, the Monarchs are going to try to monopolize the ball and take the game to the Lights. Which means that Lights get to do what they like to do - defend, then counter.

Here's to a quick bounce back against the Monarchs this evening.

-VSB


Thursday, April 26, 2018

Las Vegas Lights FC vs San Antonio - Friday Game Preview

After (yet another) week off, the Lights have (yet another) home game this weekend. But this time, instead of the traditional Saturday night game, we get a game on a Friday night.

That's significant not only because it disrupts those of us who are locked into our routines, but also because it was moved to Friday for a reason - it's the Lights' first regular season game that will be on *national TV.

*Disclaimer - Because it's USL, "national TV" doesn't actually mean TV, it just means that it's going to stream on ESPN3 this week.

Either way, because it's going to be "broadcast" on ESPN, hopefully the team will make its way in front a few more eyes this weekend then it normally does. It's a good chance to inspire a bit more buzz and interest around the club, and hopefully grab a few more fans from places that otherwise might not get exposed to the team.

But in order to do that, the Lights need to make sure they put in an inspirational performance tomorrow.

They are up against San Antonio tomorrow. San Antonio were a really good team last season, finishing on 62 points and in second place in the western conference. This year... not so much. They swept up in pre-season, but as we've certainly learned from the Lights this year, pre-season form does not necessarily correlate with regular season performance. San Antonio have started off this year with an uninspiring 6 points from 7 games, with their only win coming in the second game of the season. And so far they've only managed to score 4 goals, while conceding 7.

However, there's a decent chance that their start to the season isn't really reflective of who they are. As I said earlier, they were 2nd in the conference last season. And while they've struggled to score this season, it hasn't been for lack of opportunities. They've managed to take 58 shots, and put 29 of those on target. It's just that they are almost last in the league in converting their chances, sitting at 8%. They are decent passers of the ball too - in about the top third of the league.

So, the Lights should feel confident going into this one. We're at home, we've had a two-week break, and we have gotten to a great start. But we can't feel too confident and underestimate a team that just a few short months ago was challenging for first place in the conference.

Finally, on Friday, keep an eye on our man Carlos Alvarez. I pointed him out in my last post as one of the stand-out players of the season. He's the man our attack really runs through, and he's going to have some extra incentive this time around. In 2016, in San Antonio's inaugural USL season, Carlos was San Antonio's first ever signing, and picked up five goals in thirty appearances for the team. He left the very next season, but now he gets to see some old faces (and hopefully put in a performance that makes them regret letting him go).

Here's to three points on Friday.

-VSB

Saturday, April 21, 2018

Which Players Are the Stand-Outs on Las Vegas Lights FC?

Big news this week. Arsene Wenger announced he would step down as manager of Arsenal over in England. The reason I bring this up here, of course, clearly not because it's a bye week and therefore I am struggling a bit for a topic and intro for this post. No no, it's really because this means we'll never get to see anyone ironically bring a "Wenger Out" banner to a Las Vegas game, which I think is a bit of a shame. Oh well. On to the bye week.

Since we have a two-week break, I thought it might be a good idea to sort of pause and take stock of how the season is going. I kind of talked about the team as a whole as part of the lead-up and review of last week's game. So this time around, rather than the team as a whole, I wanted to talk about some of the individual players who have really stood out so far this season.

Joel Huiqui - Oh captain my captain

Huiqui was clearly one of our "star signings" of the preseason. He has had a great career in the game, spending about a decade with Mexican giants Cruz Azul. He also has 14 caps for Mexico - no small feat when you think about how much talent Mexico has had down the years.

If there was one thing that was a question mark around him coming to the Lights (and was probably the reason we signed him), it was probably his age. At 35 years old, he's not exactly in the prime of his career.

But so far this season, he has been a great reminder that for defenders can still be very effective even in their mid thirties.

He was always going to bring a wealth of experience and organization to the team (qualities that are invaluable in an expansion defence). But he has also kept up physically. So far he has made tackles with a 78% success rate (one of the highest on the team) and made a solid 11 interceptions. He has also shown that his technical skills and decision making has stayed sharp, as he has made 90 successful passes at a 70% success rate, which looks merely solid until you remember that the team as a whole averages closer to 50%.

And finally, he has already scored 2 goals in just 4 games. A goal every other game is the kind of rate you want out of your starting striker. While Huiqui is clearly not going to keep this up all season, any goals from defence that he can contribute are going to be a big bonus.

Carlos Alvarez - The Playmaker

Carlos didn't exactly come with the same kind of pedigree as Huiqui - but he is still a solid professional with USL and even a year of MLS experience. And, at 27, he is smack in the prime of his physical powers. And his quality has really shown this year with the Lights as he has shined in a creative midfield role.

He only has the one goal to his name so far (but 1 in 4 is still decent for a midfielder). But his real contribution has been in setting them up. He has 2 assists already in 4 games (only three players in the entire league have more) and has created 12 chances (only seven in the league with more). Also, he completes his passes at a 74% rate, which is pretty decent for any creative midfielder, and especially for one in a team like ours.

If the Lights are going to ride their attack to any sort of success this season, you can bet that Alvarez is going to be a big part of it.

Ricardo Ferrino - Shot-Stopper

Now I am on record as saying that our goalkeeper makes decisions that are occasionally - shall we say "eyebrow-raising." And I know that I'm not the only one who would be a little more comfortable if he were slightly more conservative in his decision making and his distribution out of the back.

But you have to admit, the man has performed for the team so far this season. In a team that doesn't really top the leaderboards in any one area, he is tied for second in the league with 16 saves in his first four games (you can come to your own conclusions about what that says about how the defence looks at times). And those saves haven't all been routine or meaningless - just last game you can think of a few shots that Ferrino managed to keep out that meant we kept on equal terms with Sacramento.

And, since the Lights are definitely shaping up to be a defend-and-counter team, Ferrino is going to be asked to keep up his good shot-stopping record.

There have been more players who have caught the eye, of course, but I'm not looking to write a novel here, so I think I'll just leave it at those three for now.

The Lights don't play again until next week. Until then, I guess we'll all just have to find some non-Las-Vegas soccer to tide us over.

Viva Lights

P.S. - You'll notice that I got a pretty sweet new logo for the blog. All credit for that goes to the excellent Jack Whitefoot, who has my sincere thanks. Give him a follow, if you aren't already, @Whitefoot44 on Twitter.

Sunday, April 15, 2018

Three Things: Las Vegas 1 - Sacramento Republic 1

A 1-1 draw last night as Las Vegas continued their undefeated start to the season. On the one hand, you always want to pick up wins at home. On the other, you can't be too disappointed when your expansion team holds a good team to a draw, and starts the season undefeated in four.

Here are my thoughts about the match:

1. Set Pieces, Set Pieces, Set Pieces

The Lights got off to a hot start, with a defender-to-defender goal. The Lights picked up a corner kick, and in what was clearly a planned routine, whipped the ball near post and low. Garduno stooped to flick it to the back post, where our captain Huiqui squeezed it in at the far post.

It was clearly an intentional routine. And I loved to see it. It shows that the team puts some real thought and effort into planning their set pieces, as opposed to just crossing it into an area and hoping something works.

I often wonder why so many teams clearly do just that (the hit-and-hope strategy). I mean, crossing is a low percentage game, but that's because normally in a normal crossing situation, the crosser is being closed down, maybe he's on the run, there's at most three players to aim at, and everyone is just kind of guessing as to where the ball will be.

On a set piece, there's a chance to plan everything out beforehand - where players will run, where the ball will go. And in a low-event game like soccer, even if you can dig up 5-6 extra goals per season from planned set-pieces, it can really make the difference in the league table.

2. What Happened to the Counters?

So let's all be clear here - Las Vegas is not a possession-based team. If you want to put it charitably, they are a "vertical" or a "transition" team, a team that likes to get the ball forward fast. If you want to be less charitable, they are a team that plays long-ball.

My point here though, is not that long-ball is bad or anything. I just think that if you're a counterattacking team, and you get an early goal, that should set you up really well for the rest of the game. Once the opponent goes behind, they usually try to push up and attack to get level. That should. theoretically, leave space in behind to run into and punish them when they push too far.

In this game, it was set up perfectly, but the Lights didn't quite execute, and actually made some attempt to keep the ball better than they have in past games.

3. Overall, We Played Well

Look, it's always a little bit disappointing when you don't get all three points in a home game. But, when you look at the big picture, this was not really a disappointing result.

First and foremost, it keeps us above that playoff line. We're still on 2 points per game, which is a great clip, if we can keep it up.

Second, we're still undefeated. Now, with the way soccer works, you can be "undefeated" with a ton of draws, and actually come out worse than a team that loses a lot of games, but wins a lot too. But still, half the sport is psychological, and being able to say "we haven't been beaten yet" is something that gives players a lot of confidence.

Third, the Lights actually played pretty well this game. The team had 15 shots to Sacramento's 19, (nine of those 15 were in the box, compared to 7 for Sacramento). And the Lights made 251 passes at a 61% accuracy to Sacramento's 343 passes at a 69% accuracy. Now, I know that the Lights were the home team, and usually you'd expect the home team to take the game to the opponent.

However, remember that Sacramento are a good team (also undefeated so far this season). And, at risk of stating the obvious, "goals change games." When Las Vegas went up so early in the game, the onus shifted to Sacramento to take the game to the Lights - so it was only natural that they would push forward, get more passes, and take more shots, with the Lights looking to protect what they had and pick them off on the counter.

But even though the game state, to an extent, dictated this game, I think the Lights did a much better job (especially in the first half) of realizing when they needed to just put a foot on the ball, stroke it around, and take some pressure off.

That's it for this week. Here's to another undefeated week next Saturday next next Friday (thanks to @FirstJasonMS for catching my mistake).

Thursday, April 12, 2018

Las Vegas vs Sacramento Republic - Pre-Match Preview

After a week off, the Lights are once again preparing to take the field at Cashman, this time to face the perennial-MLS-applicants Sacramento Republic.

Currently, the Lights are sitting pretty in 7th place in the West, above the playoff line, with 7 points from 3 games. That's a great spot to be in for an expansion side after 3 games. To put it in perspective, last season's final play-off team (Sacramento Republic, if you were wondering) made it into the post-season with only 46 points from 32 games. So we should be pretty excited to have already collected so many points so early on.

But I want to take a second to pump the brakes just a little bit.

First, let's all just take a breath and realize that this clip is probably unsustainable. The Lights currently have over 2 points per game. Only one team was able to finish last season in the USL with over 2 points per game - and they topped the Western Conference.

Second, Las Vegas has really had a fortunate run of matches to start off this season. This will be our fourth match of the season, and all but one of them have seen the Lights with home field advantage. And our only away game was against a fellow expansion side in Fresno. Now to their credit, the Lights have done their job by taking advantage of this start, and getting early points on the board is a very important thing. But believe it or not, we are going to have to play some away games this season, which will be a bit tougher.

Third (it's about to get mildly stats-y here), the Lights have probably been finishing their chances at an unsustainable rate. Let me explain: so far the Lights have taken 34 shots, put 11 of those on target, and scored 6 of them, which means they have a conversion rate of 25% (i.e. they have converted 25% of their shots into goals). That is really really high. Last season, the average conversion rate in the USL was around 14%, and the highest was only 19%. Or, to look at individuals, even the most efficient strikers in the world (such as Griezmann, Messi, Aubameyang, Costa, etc.) usually sit at most in the high teens and low twenties. Now there's a lot more to shot efficiency than just conversion rate, of course, but it would be very very surprising if the Lights managed to keep scoring 1 out of every 4 shots they take.

Anyways, on to the match preview.

As I mentioned above, Sacramento had a thoroughly ok season last year, barely scraping into the play-offs. The year before that, they topped the western conference. They've started off this year in 2016 form, with 10 points from just 4 games, putting them a few places above Las Vegas.

This is another good team that likes to pass the ball and does it well (though not as well as Swope Park from a few weeks back). They also look like they are quite solid defensively, having only conceded 3 goals in their 4 games.

All that being said, however, they haven't exactly blown the doors off in their previous matches. All four of their games have all been pretty tight affairs (2-1, 0-1, 2-2, 1-0). Also, it should be pointed out that Sacramento has been fairly fortunate - they have already played against two teams that picked up red cards, which obviously made life a bit easier. Sacramento won both of those games, but didn't exactly turn the screw on the short-handed opponent, as each game ended in a 1-0 victory.

So I guess the moral of the story this week is, for us Lights fans, let's not get too overconfident even though we've had a good start, as there's a chance we've been finishing at an unsustainable rate.

BUT, for this weekend, keep in mind that the same story applies to Sacramento's hot start, as they too have been pretty fortunate to face two 10-man teams.

So let's hope the Lights can keep those shooting boots on and make Sacramento experience their first defeat of the season.

In tribute to Roma's victory over Barca this week:

Forza Lights!

Sunday, April 1, 2018

Las Vegas 2 - Swope Park Rangers 1: Three Things

Las Vegas picked up their first home win of the season in a come-from-behind victory against in-form Swope Park Rangers yesterday.

So for the last few weeks I've been doing a kind of "match recap" of each game, with highlights of the goals, etc. But I think I am going to start doing something different after each game. First, there's already a highlights video that the league puts out here. Second, I assume that the people reading this have probably already watched the match. And three, making gifs of the goals and action takes more work than I think it is worth.

So instead, I'm going to start a short recap, then writing a few takeaways from each game.

1.  Las Vegas Answers Some Resilience Questions

It is one thing to pick up a win when you score first and have the advantage of sitting on a lead. It completely changes the nature of the game - the opponent is forced to come out a bit more, and you can sit back, defend, and counter into the spaces that they leave open.

It's another thing entirely when you go behind and have to make up a deficit.

This was the first time that Las Vegas had to come from behind. And to be honest, based on the first half, I didn't have a lot of faith that the team had it in them. Swope Park completely dominated the opening forty-five, both in terms of possession and passing, and in terms of shots. I think the only shot Las Vegas had in the first half was a very speculative 35-yard shot from a defender that flew well off target.

But in the second half, Las Vegas came out like a team re-energized. Not only did their passing look more crisp and sharper, but their pressing was more intelligent and caused Swope Park more problems.

They really turned it on, and it the end a comeback victory will give this team a lot of confidence.

2.  Passing Accuracy Improves

In the lead up to this game, I pointed out in a post that Las Vegas really needed to improve their passing accuracy, which sat at a dismal 50-something percent. In this game, the team was much improved.

Swope Park still outpassed Las Vegas in terms of numbers (448 to 270). But the accuracy numbers were much closer (80% for Swope Park and 70% for Las Vegas).

Las Vegas came out with their standard counter-attacking strategy, but this time they were able to connect with a lot more of their passes (especially in the second half), and most importantly, that meant that they weren't giving the ball to Swope Park in key areas.

3.  Long Throws for the Win

In the end, Las Vegas prevailed not from swash-buckling attacking soccer, but with some gritty defending, some decisive goalkeeping, from a long throw, and a fortunate own goal.

The own goal was one of those "dumb luck" kind of things - the Swope Park defender and keeper got their communication all wrong, and from a relatively safe situation, the ball ended up in the back of the net. It was a lucky break, but I'll take it, and to be fair to the Lights, they defended well and made sure it made a difference.

The first goal, however, was just as important. Las Vegas has developed a pattern of taking long-throw ins whenever they win a throw in the final third. Lots of people in soccer frown on such "industrial" tactics. But, in my opinion, it is kind of a smart move.

For throw ins, unless it is taken quickly, the opponent usually has a great chance to organize the defence. The ball is completely stationary, so the defence can mark up, defend the space, and basically just make life difficult.

So, if you're in a situation where you have a decent chance of turning it over anyways, why not throw it into the box and see what happens? If you have a guy with a good arm, it is only marginally worse than a corner kick, and almost every team takes those long instead of short. And since so few teams do it, it can often create the kind of confusion that results in a goal, as we saw today.

So long live the long throw, I say.

Bonus Point:

What was with the Swope Park players' names? I'm pretty sure I saw "Colton Storm" get subbed off for "Brian Rebellion" in the second half. I'm pretty sure those are fake names - they sound like the "unlicensed" video game names (anyone remember the crazy names from the old Ken Griffey Jr. game for the super nintendo?).

Anyways, that's it for today. Look for a more "big picture" post sometime in the week.