St. Louis FC 4 - Las Vegas Lights FC 1: Three Things (or Deja Vu All Over Again)

The Lights conceded an early goal on their way to a dismal defeat away from home, in which they also went down a man from a red card offense...

Wait what day is this? Is this the day after our April 28 game against San Antonio FC (3-1 defeat with one red card)? Or our July 26 game against Sounders 2 (3-0 defeat with two red cards)?

Oh, this is a new one. Ok then.

Here are three things from the game.

1. Playoff Door is Shut

If you've never heard of the website fivethirtyeight.com, you should check it out. It's a pretty cool site that uses a lot of statistics and analytics to make sports predictions for a variety of sports - soccer included. They recently added the data from USL, which means that they now have a page that kind of ranks the offensive and defensive output of each team in the league (based on a variety of factors like historical performance, market value, and underlying stats like xG). The predictions are never perfect, of course (nothing is), but they are pretty good in my opinion.

That's the good news.

The bad news is this:

That little "1%" there is the 538 model's prediction of Las Vegas's chances of making the playoffs after this defeat.

Intuitively, this also makes sense. There are about 12 games left to play, and we have 23 points from 22 games (about 1 point per game). Last season, the worst team to sneak into the playoffs got 44 points (and I'm pretty sure there are more games this season, so that number should go up). So in order to be in the hunt, we have to get about twice as many points per game from the next 12 games as we have for the initial 22.

What I'm saying is, keep your money in your pocket.

2. It Didn't Look Like What It Was

In short, this game against a fellow play-off contender was, at the very very very least, a must-not-lose game. So what do the Lights do?

Concede within 4 minutes.

The goal came off of a corner kick. Our defender stuck out a leg to keep the ball off of  a St. Louis head, the ball fell to another St. Louis player, whose shot was blocked, then it fell to another St. Louis player, whose shot crept in.

Look, it's a set piece goal, those will happen sometimes. But when the opposing team gets two shots inside the six yard box within five seconds, you can't really blame anyone but yourself when one goes in. The Lights really should have been more on top of things - the initial clearance was a desperate attempt to get anything on the ball because the Lights player had almost lost his man, and after that, someone has to be the first man to react and kick the ball anywhere.

The Lights conceded again within ten minutes, and although we got a bit fortunate with a penalty that looked a bit soft to me (the keeper did take out the man, but he got the ball and I don't think the Lights attacker ever looked like he was going to get to it), the Lights were never really in the game. Not only did St. Louis outscore us, they also hit the post, spurned an open goal, and generally outplayed the Lights.

3. Is It About Honor? Or Is It Really About Soccer?

After the match, technical director Chelis said "There is nothing in training or with our tactics to solve. It’s going to be about honor."

Is it about honor? Is this the same "honor" that saw Chelis challenge a fan to a fight in the parking lot, and has resulted in him getting both a four-game suspension in May and an eight-game suspension in June?

Or is it really about the fact that our squad has attempted 1,000 less passes than the next worst passing team in the league (and at the worst pass accuracy), or that our defensive strategy is apparently based exclusively on fouling (#1 in the league in fouls, yellow cards, and red cards baby!) and not on keeping the ball out of the net (2nd worse record in the league in goals conceded), or that the squad has been almost completely overhauled midseason, or that we haven't settled on an established line-up?

Because if I had two choices - to either improve the team's "honor"; or to improve the team's defensive shape, I know which one I would choose.

And that may be the most worrying part of the whole game. Not losing by three or more goals (again), but knowing that the defeat will not result in any training ground changes whatsoever.

Till next time.

-VSB

Las Vegas Lights 1 - Rio Grande Valley 0 - Three Things (With Some Thoughts on Results v. Process)

Las Vegas Lights FC beat Rio Grande Valley this weekend 1-0 with a late header from Joel Huiqui off of a corner providing the winning goal.

I haven't actually posted anything about the team in a few weeks now (my fandom gets sidetracked sometimes by little distractions like a job and a family), so I am also going to include some observations from the past few weeks in general, as I write about the most recent game specifically.

1. Won the Must-Win Game

This game, at home against a team that was three points behind us going into the match, was an absolutely "must-win" event if Las Vegas wants to hold out any hope of making a playoff push. So, fair play to the team, they had to win it, and they did.

Unfortunately, such has been the state of our season so far, that winning this "must-win" game doesn't grant us a lot of reprieve. We're still seven points back from the last playoff spot (with a far inferior goal difference), with only about 1/3 of the season to play. In other words, this is not going to be our last "must-win" game this season. Let's just hope that the team can find a way to win those games like they did for this one.

2. Squad Overhaul

By my count, the Lights have picked up ten new players since the end of May (Avila, Mendiola, Mathers, Perez, Inigo, Manley, Samayoa, Murphy, Salgado, and Guzman). Most of those new faces are loanees from MLS or other USL clubs. And I wouldn't be surprised if I have missed a couple players from that list.

That is a huge amount of turnover for one transfer window - it's enough to make an entirely new outfield.

While everybody loves a good transfer/new signing, this amount of dealing raises some serious questions for me about the club's recruitment. Surely it can't have always been the plan to put a squad together before the season started, and then sign ten entirely new players (and let a few leave after just a few months with the team) within a few months?

Most of these new faces have seen significant minutes for the first team in recent weeks, but as far as I can tell none are locked-in starters. But, to be honest with you, I couldn't tell you more than maybe three "locked-in" starters for this team for any given game, such is the level of chopping and changing by the manager. I mean, I write a blog exclusively about the club, and I couldn't tell you what the coach's preferred XI is, or even what his preferred formation would be. And I can't help but think that kind of uncertainty affects the team.

3. Results vs Process

On that note, let's talk a little bit more about the manner of the Lights' victory this weekend. Las Vegas won by one goal, from a header from a defender on a late corner kick.

However, soccer is a famously low-event sport. The stat-line that matters in this game is simple: 1-0. But there are other stat-lines from this game that reveal a little bit more detail - and that detail makes me a little bit concerned.

Rio Grande beat the Lights in possession 63% to 37% (and also in passing 435 to 238). They also beat us in passing accuracy 78% to 65%. And also in shots (barely, 14 to 13), but by a substantial margin in shots on target, 7 to 2. And also by a huge margin in touches inside the opposition box, 29 to 15 (mostly down the Lights' left hand side, which infers that Torres and Garduno had a bit of a rough night). We did manage to keep our traditional dominance in fouls though - 22 fouls to their 8.

And to be clear here - this is not a situation where the stats are skewed because the Lights went ahead early and Rio Grande had to press the game to get a result. No, this was a game that was 0-0 for the majority, where the Lights were at home, against a team that is below them in the standings, in a match that the Lights basically have to win in order to stay in the playoff hunt.

Look, I know this probably sounds a bit churlish, coming after a game in which the Lights scored a late winner and kept their playoff hopes alive. But at the end of the day, despite the good result, I still have some major concerns about the process, and whether repeating the process is going to produce similar winning results in the future.

Hopefully I am wrong (I have been wrong before) and the team has managed to come up with some secret formula that defies what I am seeing and the stats.

For the sake of the team's playoff future, let's hope so.

Till next time.

-VSB

Las Vegas Lights FC 1 - St. Louis FC 0: Three Things

Las Vegas continues to creep ever so slowly towards the playoff line with a 1-0 home win against St. Louis. A well-taken (if somewhat fortuitous in the build-up) goal from Raul Mendiola was enough to see off a St. Louis side that looked pretty toothless in attack.

Here are some of my thoughts from the game:

1. A Welcome Clean Sheet - At Long Last

This was the first time the Lights defense has been able to shut out the opponent in 13 games. The last time we were able to keep the opponent from scoring was way back on May 1st, when we went away to the Monarchs, went down to ten men early, and bunkered for the entire game.

That is not good, you guys, especially for a team whose purported M.O. is "defend and counter." It's a two-word strategy, and when you can't do the first word, it's a problem.

In this game, not only were the Lights able to keep a clean sheet, they were able to completely negate any threat from St. Louis. The opposition were only able to get three (3!!) shots off in the entire 90+ minutes of game time - and none of those were on target.

That is awful. I don't think I've ever seen a stats line like that before in any league. I feel sorry for any St. Louis fan who bothered to tune into that game. Granted, the Lights weren't exactly a relentless attacking force, with only 6 shots and 1 on target, but hey, they got the goal to get the job done.

Hopefully this defensive solidity can continue. I've kind of accepted the fact that this particular Lights team is not going to suddenly become a free-scoring, pretty-passing, purveyor of the beautiful game (*cough* 66% passing accuracy this season *cough*). So if we aren't going to try to be pretty, let's at least be effective.

2. Time to Stop Chopping and Changing

As stated above, the Lights have not been able to keep a clean sheet for a very long time. I was curious as to why that would be the case, so I went back through the games to see if I could pick up any details from our lineups.

What I found was that there has been a whole lot of rotation going on in the backline practically since the beginning of the season.

90% of defending is organization. In an ideal world, you would have the exact same starting back four (or three, depending on system) for every game. This gives the defense time to gel, so that instead of moving up, down, and across as four individual players, they can begin to move as one solitary unit. In the top leagues, almost all of the successful teams have at the very least a pair or a trio of centerbacks that, when fit, will play every important game.

Unfortunately, that has not been the case for Las Vegas, which may go some way towards explaining why the team has found clean sheets so hard to come by. Since the start of the season, the Lights backline has consisted of four (or three) of Huiqui, Alatorre, Jaime, Torres, Herrera-Perla, Mendoza, Garduno, Guillen-Torres, and now Samoya. That gang have been put into back fours, back threes, have been rotated, chopped up, mixed up, and tossed around. Rarely have there ever been two games back-to-back that have seen the same defensive lineup as the last game.

In a game where organization, familiarity, and muscle memory is the key to outmaneuvering the opposition, that is just asking for trouble. Hopefully, based on the success of this line-up, we may see some continuity next game. But since the captain was left out of the side, I think it is probably (and unfortunately) unlikely.

3. The Loanees Look Good

The Lights front office, maybe in recognition that the season hasn't really been panning out as we would want it to be, went out into the transfer market for some reinforcements.

At the start of the season, the team really didn't dip into the loan market at all. And hey, I get it, I've played FIFA too. If you develop your own players, you can then maybe transfer them out for a fee, and pick up a decent profit that you can reinvest.

But at some point, what the team needs is results right now. And the loan market is a good way to access a level of talent that the club, at the level that they currently are, can't really afford to purchase.

So, since we are where we are, the team brought in 22-year-old right back Nicolas Samayoa from the New England Revolution and 19-year-old central midfielder James Murphy from LAFC, both of whom started this game. Tellingly, both of these youngsters played alongside some more "established" players - Samayoa next to the 33-year-old Alatorre, and Murphy alongside the 35-year-old Kobayashi.

This set-up is probably good for both parties. The young loanees get an experienced head next to them that can help them through the game, tell them what to watch for, etc. And the older veterans get a partner with speed and endurance that help to cover for legs that may be slowing down just a bit. 

That's all I got from this game. I think we have a double-game week this week (both road games).

Let's hope for another clean sheet from at least one of those.

-VSB

What are they smoking down at Cashman?

Las Vegas Lights FC fell 3-2 away at Swope Park Rangers this weekend.

The result is not actually what I wanted to talk about. Swope Park are a good team (better than us, to be honest), so to lose by one goal away from home is nothing to get bent out of shape about.

What I want to discuss today is what we are all talking about after the game - the penalty.

Down 3-2, the Lights were awarded a penalty kick in the last minute of stoppage time. It was a gift-wrapped opportunity to steal a point, on the road, against one of the better teams in the division, with the very last kick of the game. But instead of taking the shot, the Lights did this:



What? Why?

A penalty kick is literally a free shot from more or less the perfect position on the field. As in - the team spends the entire game trying to get the ball as close as possible to the penalty spot before taking a shot. About 75%-80% of penalty kicks are scored. That number jumps up to about 85% if the taker manages to keep the ball on target.

So why in the world would you want to mess around and pass it to a teammate at that moment.

Now I know what you are saying: Messi and Suarez did it, and it turned out fine:

Yes, they did but (1) they were already two goals up with ten minutes to go, not a goal down with seconds remaining against a better team on the road, and (2) it's Messi and Suarez (we can all admit they are on a slightly different talent level than Alvarez and Ochoa).

It the end, Ochoa and Alvarez's attempt turned out to be less "Messi-Suarez" and more "Pires-Henry."



After the game, both Chelis and Isidro Sanchez defended the pass-penalty attempt, calling it "brave."

Fair enough, the coach is supposed to defend the players in public. What I worry about is what is happening in private.

In isolation, one ill-advised pass-penalty wouldn't be a big deal. But when you start to look at it in connection with this:

And this:

And this:

And this:

The goalkeeper catches the free kick and then just dribbles all the way out past midfield on his own personal counter attack! I'M DYINGGGGG pic.twitter.com/PPtg7Qe9Si

— Mike Manganello (@MikeManganello) June 3, 2018

And all of a sudden your club starts to look less like a professional soccer team and more like a 
circus.

So my main question in response to the pass-penalty is this line from the report for the Las Vegas Review-Journal: " a play they’ve practiced since their first week of training in January came up short."

In soccer, you only have so much time on the training ground before the players get tired. You don't want to run the team into the ground, as they have (at least) one game every single week, and they need to start fresh. So with your limited time, the coach has to make some tough decisions. What do we practice most? Because if you spend a session practicing, let's say, crossing, that leaves you with less time to practice corner routines, or organizing the defense, or shooting.

So the question is, what did the team give up in order to practice pass-penalties "since January"? Shouldn't we have just been practicing real penalties (you know, like every other professional team in existence)?

And what exactly environment is going on in the backroom? What is the training environment that leads to the goalkeeper thinking that it would be a great idea to try to dribble from his own six-yard-box past the entire opposing team in the middle of the game, like he is some sort of Neuer/Maradona hybrid? Is it even possible to instill discipline into a team when the technical director can't even go a month without getting banned from the touchline?

The coaches claim it is part of the "show" - but I don't know anyone that is going to renew their season ticket based on the number of weird plays that the team tries during the season. They are going to renew based on whether the team is successful, and whether they play good, quality soccer. That's why we go to games and tune in to watch, because we love the game, not the sideshows. The sooner the coaching staff learns that, the better.

-VSB

Las Vegas Lights FC: 4 - Seattle Sounders 2: 1 - It's All About the Mistakes

Man what a wild ride we've been on.

The last four games for this team have been a 7-2 loss, then a 4-1 win, then a 4-0 loss, and now another 4-1 win. Talk about inconsistency.

Here are three thoughts from the Lights' latest 4-1 win over Sounders 2.

1.  Focus on the Mistakes

Famously, Jose Mourinho's footballing philosophy is defined by a focus on mistakes. In his mind, for most matches, the team that makes the most mistakes loses, and the one that makes the least amount of mistakes wins. Therefore, not only does he drill his team within in inch of their lives to avoid costly mistakes, he also foregoes possession. The theory is that the less you have the ball, the less opportunities you have to mess up, and the more opportunities the opponent has.

That's kind of how this game went down.

The Lights' first goal came from putting pressure on the Sounders 2 backline. When their defender made a poor decision to head it back to his keeper, Ochoa was ready to pounce and make it 1-0. Same for the second goal, Ochoa put in some good work to pressure the keeper, who made a mistake, and it had a fortunate bounce to make it 2-0.

On the other hand, the Lights were diligent in keeping their own mistakes to a minimum, and keeping the Sounder 2 attack relatively quiet.

2.  Staying Alive

The coach and the team has come under a lot of pressure recently - both for the results on the field and the technical director's ludicrous antics off of it. It has gotten so bad that the owner has given the Chelis the ominous "100% vote of confidence." (For those who don't follow european soccer much, a "vote of confidence" from the owner/board of directors is more often than not following by the coach getting sacked within a month or so).

This win was exactly what the team needed to relieve a bit of that pressure.

Let's be clear - Sounder 2 are not a good team, and the Lights were at home. They should have won this game, and they did. This win keeps us within touching distance (4 points) of the final playoff berth, which is what the goal for this team should be in their inaugural season.

We need to, at a minimum, keep beating the teams that we are expected to win (such as Sounders 2). And if we are serious about challenging for that last spot, we need to start picking up a result or two when we aren't the favorites. Next weekend, on the road at Swope Park Rangers, would be a great place to start.

3.  Pick Something and Stick with It

In the last five games, the Lights have tried to play in a 4-2-3-1, a 4-1-4-1, a 4-4-2, and twice in a 3-4-2-1.

Let's just pick something and stick with it, shall we? That could go a long way to achieving the kind of consistency that the team has been lacking in recent weeks. It's hard for players, especially at this level, to get familiar with their roles and surroundings when the formation, spacing, and players around them are constantly changing. You need to build up unconscious patterns in the players' mind, and when things are always changing, that can't happen.

Out of the formations listed above, I think the 3-4-2-1 (or 3-4-3, or whatever you want to call it) is the best suited for our players. Our defense can be, to put it nicely, a bit creaky at times. While Huiqui seems to come up with goals as often as our strikers do, his backline can also look a bit slow and a bit disheveled.

With three at the back, that should give the center backs a bit more cover for when they do inevitably let someone run by or lose a runner. Think of it as a safety net.

One thing though - in the Phoenix game, we tried a 3-4-3 with Carlos Alvarez, out best #10, as one of the midfield two. And clearly, it wasn't very effective.

If we stick with the 3-4-3, we need to make sure to have two more solid midfielders in the middle, who are a bit more adept at playing defense. This will give the backline a bit more protection, and will also move Alvarez (who is probably our most effective attacker) closer to the opposition box, where he can do the most damage.

Let's hope we stick with it and find some consistency in both performance and results, starting next weekend.

-VSB

Dear Chelis

Dear Chelis,

"...I want to apologize many times. But my action and my only intention was to point to him. Without intention, and with one finger, you can’t hurt anyone. I made a mistake... It will not happen again."

That was from last month. When you received a 7-game touchline ban because you confronted a referee and poked him in the chest with your finger. You apologized profusely, and said that it was a mistake, and claimed that things like this would not happen again.

Yet here we are.

This week you were given yet another touchline ban (this time 8 days) for confronting a fan in our midweek game against Phoenix. In a bizarre attempt to defend yourself, you said this on twitter:

No me dijo puto desde la tribuna 90’. Al final me lo encontré afuera y lo enfrenté. Lo tuvieron q haber sacado del estadio y nadie hizo nada.
El me tocó mi orgullo y yo te toqué su cabeza https://t.co/2qHaxQNiMu

— José Luis Sanchez (@Elchelis) June 16, 2018

My Spanish isn't great (ok it's bad), but if I'm understanding right, you are trying to defend yourself by saying that he called you a [bleep], and so you found him outside the stadium and confronted him. "He touched my pride, and I touched his head." (I'm pretty sure something has been lost in translation for that last line).

For starters - that's a horrible excuse. You are a 59-year-old grown man. That is supposed to be in charge of the Las Vegas Lights FC organization. I don't care what some drunken fan calls you at a game, the technical director of an entire football club should not be trying to meet him outside and fight it out. Get a hold of yourself.

This is the second touchline ban you have received within the space of two months. Let's try not to continue the streak, shall we?

Second, what exactly is the demarcation of duty at the club. My understanding is that you are the technical director, and your son, Isidro Sanchez, is the coach. So why are you even on the touchline in the first place? Isn't it his job to conduct the in-game management (pick the team and formation, make subs, yell at the players in general)? Isn't your job to oversee the direction of the club. As in work on transfers, manage the academy, oversee contracts, etc.?

Wouldn't it be better for all involved if you just kind of took this touchline ban as an opportunity to take a step back and work more within your role? that would give you more time to focus on your specific job, and would give your son more control to focus on his specific job. Plus, as an added bonus, no-one would yell names at you, and you wouldn't have to try to get into fights in the parking lot.

Sincerely,

A concerned fan.

-VSB

Las Vegas Lights FC Back on Track?

Las Vegas frankly surprised everyone with a convincing 4-1 victory over the visiting Colorado Switchbacks this weekend. The Lights came into this game on an absolutely terrible run of form, but they somehow managed to turn it around on a night that reminded us how fun it is to win a game now and again.

Two early goals (both from set pieces) certainly helped the Lights to get over the psychological pressure of the losing streak, and you could almost visibly see the pressure lift as the team started to play with more confidence and swagger.

So now is all well in Vegas? No, we're still earning just over one point per game, nowhere near the playoff picture. But having been pretty harsh on the team for the previous run, it's time to give credit where it's due and recognize the importance of the win. Here are my three thoughts from the game:

1. Timing is Everything

The Las Vegas goals in this game could not have come at more perfect times. When a team is on a bad run like the Lights were, goals are almost more important for their psychological effect than their effect on the scoreboard. If the Lights had conceded the first goal, it almost certainly would have made their heads drop, and they probably would have gone on to lose yet another game.

Instead, the Lights scored first. From a well-worked throw in by the corner flag, the Lights worked the ball to Christian Torres, who crossed it in for who else but Carlos Alvarez to head home.

Just as important in this game was the second goal. When a team is struggling like the Lights were, confidence can get shattered in a moment. Take for example the game against LA Galaxy II - we scored first, but they equalized shortly thereafter, and the game really went south fast after that.

That is almost certainly what the Colorado coach was telling his players at halftime. They would have come out int he second half really up for it and ready to make life difficult. So when Freddy Adu scored his birthday goal within two minutes of the restart, it redoubled the confidence of the Lights, while shattering the belief of the Switchbacks.

2. The Perfect Goalscorers

You could not have asked for better players to pick up the goals in this game.

First, Carlos Alvarez scored. If it wasn't clear before his goal, it should be clear now - Carlos is our best attacking player, and his form is vital to the smooth operation of our attack. When he's on, the Lights are on. When he's not, the Lights struggle.

Second, Freddy Adu scored. We all know Freddy's history. He's been a few places and seen a few things in his career. If he can gain some confidence here in Las Vegas, I think he has a lot to contribute to the other players who maybe haven't had the experiences he has had. This goal will hopefully help him to step out a little bit more and take a little bit more responsibility.

Third (and perhaps most importantly), Sammy Ochoa picked up his first goal of the season. I don't think I'm being too harsh here to say that so far, Ochoa's season has been disappointing (he'd probably agree). He does a lot of work for the team (knockdowns, running off the ball, etc.). But the fact of the matter is that a striker's first job is to score, and we were ten games into the season without Ochoa picking up a single goal. Some strikers are patchy scorers, meaning that they can go ten games without a goal and then rattle off ten goals in the next ten. Let's hope Ochoa follows that pattern over the next section of the season.

Fourth, Matt Thomas scored right at the end with his second of the season. With Ochoa struggling recently, it is important for the Lights to have alternate methods of scoring (you can't rely on Alvarez and set pieces from defenders all season).

3. Pretty Play

There was a definite re-think in the way the Lights approached this game compared to the last few seasons. I'n not sure how much of it came from the coach, who said "What we (did) today was the things we (did) the first four games... being brave, stepping out. It was difficult after six, eight weeks of not obtaining the results.” It may have been a more player-driven thing (either consciously or subconsciously).  But looking at the numbers, the Lights matched Colorado for possession and passing. 

Now that isn't some sort of crazy stat - most teams win the possession battle at home. But the Lights aren't most teams. Also, usually game states have a large effect on passing - when a team goes ahead early, they often try to sit back and counter-attack, ceding the possession battle to the team that now has pressure to score. 

Today, the Lights took better care of the ball, and seemed to make it a point to find players and play it on the ground to feet. Let's hope that it is something they continue to work on.

4. Bonus  - What was that?

I'm sorry, I couldn't write about this game without covering this:

The goalkeeper catches the free kick and then just dribbles all the way out past midfield on his own personal counter attack! I'M DYINGGGGG pic.twitter.com/PPtg7Qe9Si

— Mike Manganello (@MikeManganello) June 3, 2018

This is absolutely, positively crazy. This is not "oh he's just being an aggressive keeper." This is insane. The only time I have ever seen this happen is in indoor 5 on 5 pickup games when nobody really knows the score anyways - and even then players get annoyed because it leaves the goal open.

This was stupidity, and Ferrino was really lucky that Matt Thomas was on hand and willing to pick up a yellow card when Ferrino inevitably lost the ball at the halfway line.

If anyone reading this is, or knows someone, who is wanting to be a goalkeeper - this is page 1, line 1 in the book of "Things not to do."

Till next time

-VSB