Las Vegas vs Sacramento Republic - Pre-Match Preview

After a week off, the Lights are once again preparing to take the field at Cashman, this time to face the perennial-MLS-applicants Sacramento Republic.

Currently, the Lights are sitting pretty in 7th place in the West, above the playoff line, with 7 points from 3 games. That's a great spot to be in for an expansion side after 3 games. To put it in perspective, last season's final play-off team (Sacramento Republic, if you were wondering) made it into the post-season with only 46 points from 32 games. So we should be pretty excited to have already collected so many points so early on.

But I want to take a second to pump the brakes just a little bit.

First, let's all just take a breath and realize that this clip is probably unsustainable. The Lights currently have over 2 points per game. Only one team was able to finish last season in the USL with over 2 points per game - and they topped the Western Conference.

Second, Las Vegas has really had a fortunate run of matches to start off this season. This will be our fourth match of the season, and all but one of them have seen the Lights with home field advantage. And our only away game was against a fellow expansion side in Fresno. Now to their credit, the Lights have done their job by taking advantage of this start, and getting early points on the board is a very important thing. But believe it or not, we are going to have to play some away games this season, which will be a bit tougher.

Third (it's about to get mildly stats-y here), the Lights have probably been finishing their chances at an unsustainable rate. Let me explain: so far the Lights have taken 34 shots, put 11 of those on target, and scored 6 of them, which means they have a conversion rate of 25% (i.e. they have converted 25% of their shots into goals). That is really really high. Last season, the average conversion rate in the USL was around 14%, and the highest was only 19%. Or, to look at individuals, even the most efficient strikers in the world (such as Griezmann, Messi, Aubameyang, Costa, etc.) usually sit at most in the high teens and low twenties. Now there's a lot more to shot efficiency than just conversion rate, of course, but it would be very very surprising if the Lights managed to keep scoring 1 out of every 4 shots they take.

Anyways, on to the match preview.

As I mentioned above, Sacramento had a thoroughly ok season last year, barely scraping into the play-offs. The year before that, they topped the western conference. They've started off this year in 2016 form, with 10 points from just 4 games, putting them a few places above Las Vegas.

This is another good team that likes to pass the ball and does it well (though not as well as Swope Park from a few weeks back). They also look like they are quite solid defensively, having only conceded 3 goals in their 4 games.

All that being said, however, they haven't exactly blown the doors off in their previous matches. All four of their games have all been pretty tight affairs (2-1, 0-1, 2-2, 1-0). Also, it should be pointed out that Sacramento has been fairly fortunate - they have already played against two teams that picked up red cards, which obviously made life a bit easier. Sacramento won both of those games, but didn't exactly turn the screw on the short-handed opponent, as each game ended in a 1-0 victory.

So I guess the moral of the story this week is, for us Lights fans, let's not get too overconfident even though we've had a good start, as there's a chance we've been finishing at an unsustainable rate.

BUT, for this weekend, keep in mind that the same story applies to Sacramento's hot start, as they too have been pretty fortunate to face two 10-man teams.

So let's hope the Lights can keep those shooting boots on and make Sacramento experience their first defeat of the season.

In tribute to Roma's victory over Barca this week:

Forza Lights!